中国石化新闻网讯 据OGJ网站3月5日休斯敦报道，根据国际能源署（IEA）最新一期有关石油市场的年度报告，来自美国、巴西、加拿大和挪威的石油产量增长可以使世界供应充足，在2020年前能远远满足全球石油需求增长，但是，在2020年以后将需要更多的投资来提高产量。

根据Oil 2018，IEA 5年市场分析和预测，在今后的3年里，单单来自美国的产量增长将能满足世界80%的需求增长，加拿大、巴西和挪威届时能够满足世界剩余20%的需求增长。

在2023年前，来自欧佩克以外的供应将日增520万桶。由于委内瑞拉产量崩溃以及其他成员国产量增加有限，欧佩克的石油产能只能日增120万桶。

但是，IEA的年度报告发现，尽管成本不断下降，在2020年以后将需要额外的投资来刺激供应增长。全球石油工业迄今还没有从2015-2016投资前所未有的两年下跌中恢复过来，而IEA认为在2017和2018两年里美国以外的上游支出很少甚至没有增加。

李峻 编译自 OGJ

原文如下：

IEA: More investment needed to spur oil supply after 2020

Oil production growth from US, Brazil, Canada and Norway can keep the world well supplied, more than meeting global oil demand growth through 2020, but more investment will be needed to boost output after that, according to the International Energy Agency's latest annual report on oil markets.

Over the next three years, gains from the US alone will cover 80% of the world's demand growth, with Canada, Brazil, and Norway able to cover the rest, according to Oil 2018, the IEA's five-year market analysis and forecast.

By 2023, supply outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries grows by 5.2 million b/d. OPEC oil capacity rises only 1.2 million b/d due to Venezuela collapse and limited increases elsewhere.

But the report finds that despite falling costs, additional investment will be needed to spur supply growth after 2020. The oil industry has yet to recover from an unprecedented two-year drop in investment in 2015-2016, and the IEA sees little-to-no increase in upstream spending outside of the US in 2017 and 2018.